Budget and Finance Strategic Research

Budget and Finance Strategic Research

A Comparative Meta-Analysis of Regression and AI Models in Bankruptcy Prediction: The Role of Market Variables

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Department of Management, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
2 Department of Management, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
Abstract
This study employs the meta-analysis approach to assess the predictive accuracy of artificial intelligence (AI) models against traditional logistic regression in bankruptcy forecasting and to evaluate the contribution of market-based variables. It addresses two primary research questions derived from apparent contradictions in the extant empirical literature: (1) Which methodological approach—AI or logistic regression—provides superior predictive performance? (2) Does the incorporation of market variables enhance the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models? A meta-analusis study identified relevant empirical studies published between 1990 and 2024. From this corpus, 573 effect sizes were extracted and analyzed using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software to test the corresponding hypotheses. The results indicate that AI-based models demonstrate statistically significant superiority in predictive accuracy compared to regression-based models. Furthermore, the analysis confirms that model performance is positively associated with the inclusion of a more number of market predictive variables of the bankruptcy prediction model. These findings clarify methodological efficacy and underscore the value of market data in bankruptcy prediction.
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Volume 7, Issue 2 - Serial Number 23
Summer 2026
Summer 2026
Pages 11-32

  • Receive Date 14 February 2026
  • Revise Date 07 September 2026
  • Accept Date 26 September 2026