Investigating the effect of government policy uncertainty and interest rate fluctuations on the risk of government bank debts

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate Prof. in accounting, Faculty of Management and Economic Lorestan University, Iran

3 Master of Accounting, Parandak Institute Education, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Government debt to commercial banks has been growing in recent years in Iran.
Increase in government debts to commercial banks, while increasing the risk of non-payment of government debts on time (Conversion of current claims of banks from the government into deferred claims), causing an increase in liquidity and its subsequent negative effects.
It has also affected the country's economy. Therefore, this research seeks to investigate the risk of government debt to the system Banking in Iran is affected by the uncertainty of government policies and interest rate fluctuations. The research method is an analytical-causal library study using panel data approach.
For this purpose, the financial information of banks admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of time 2016 to 2021 has been reviewed. The results of the research showed that the uncertainty of macro-government policies the risk of non-payment of bank debts by the government has a positive and significant effect on bank interest rate fluctuations the risk of non-payment of bank debts by the government has a negative and significant effect. Therefore, investors should according to the environmental conditions, make more correct decisions in order to choose the shares of commercial banks in this way, not only the amount of damage caused by the uncertainty of economic policies can be minimized, but also this economic environment also obtained good returns.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Budget and Finance Strategic Research
Volume 5, Issue 3 - Serial Number 19
Autumn Quarterly
October 2024
Pages 91-113

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History

  • Receive Date: 05 March 2024
  • Revise Date: 22 July 2024
  • Accept Date: 22 July 2024

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