Exploring the causes of inconsistency between development plan and annual budget laws: using DEMATEL and causal loop diagrams

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Decision Sciences and Complex Systems, Islamic Education and Management, Imam Sadiq AsTehran, Iran

2 Department of Decision Sciences and Complex Systems - Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management - Imam Sadiq University(AS)

3 Imam Sadiq (a. s) university

Abstract

Consistency between the development plans and the annual budget, due to their short-term and medium-term time horizons and, as a result, the intensity of their impact on the performance of governments, is critical across the path of growth and development of countries. This research aims to analyze the causes of inconsistency between the development plan and the annual budget of Iran and to provide suggestions for modifying the existing procedures. For this purpose, an eight-step process consisting of Dematel methods, thematic analysis, and causal loop diagrams was followed to explain the relationships between the causes of
inconsistency between the rules of development plan and annual budget.

The results showed that weak performance of governments, weakness in the rules of the development programs and the annual budget, conflict of interests, and dependence of the budget on oil are the most important causes for the inconsistency between the program and budget. Finally, according to the identified loops, five main recommendations are suggested to increase the alignment between the development and the budget: (1) replacement of unstable sources of income with sustainable sources, (2) reduce of the time horizon of development plans to four years, (3) unifying the authors of the program and budget, (4) strengthening evidence-based decision-making, and (5) strengthening monitoring through the design of communication mechanisms.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Budget and Finance Strategic Research
Volume 5, Issue 2 - Serial Number 18
Summer Quarterly
June 2024
Pages 77-104

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History

  • Receive Date: 14 March 2024
  • Revise Date: 26 May 2024
  • Accept Date: 26 June 2024

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