بررسی میزان اثرگذاری نرخ ذخیره قانونی بر نرخ تورم در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی گرایش بانکداری اسلامی، دانشکده اقتصاد مقاومتی، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (علیه‌السلام)، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد مقاومتی، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (علیه‌السلام)، تهران، ایران.

3 پژوهشگر گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد مقاومتی، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (علیه‌السلام)، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

تورم در اقتصاد ایران تحت تأثیر عواملی همچون حجم نقدینگی، پایه پولی، رشد اقتصادی، ضریب فزاینده پولی، نرخ ارز، سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و تحریم اقتصادی قرار دارد. بانک مرکزی از نرخ ذخیره قانونی برای کنترل قدرت وام دهی و خلق پول بانک‌ها و مدیریت نقدینگی و در نتیجه هدف گذاری نرخ تورم استفاده می‌کند، اما اثرگذاری آن همچنان مورد بحث است. این پژوهش با در نظر گرفتن متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی، به بررسی تأثیر نرخ ذخیره قانونی بر تورم پرداخته و تحلیلی جامع از این رابطه ارائه می‌دهد.
این پژوهش اثرگذاری نرخ ذخیره قانونی بر تورم در اقتصاد ایران را بررسی می‌کند. تحقیق حاضر از نوع کاربردی بوده و از روش ARDL برای تحلیل روابط کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت میان متغیرها استفاده شده است. داده‌های پژوهش از منابع رسمی، شامل بانک مرکزی و مرکز آمار ایران، گردآوری و با نرم‌افزار EViews 12 تحلیل شده‌اند.
یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که افزایش نرخ ذخیره قانونی اثر مثبت و معناداری بر نرخ تورم دارد. افزایش این نرخ در کوتاه‌مدت با ضریب ۵.۷۳۶ و احتمال ۰.۰۱۶۱ مثبت و معنادار بوده و باعث افزایش فشارهای قیمتی ناشی از کاهش توان وام‌دهی بانک‌ها می‌شود. افزایش نرخ ذخیره قانونی در بلندمدت با ضریب ۸.۷۸۲- و احتمال ۰.۰۴۰۷ همچنان مثبت و معنادار بوده و یکی از ابزارهای مدیریت نقدینگی محسوب می‌شود. همچنین، حدود ۷۰ درصد از انحرافات کوتاه‌مدت از مسیر تعادل بلندمدت در هر دوره اصلاح می‌شود که نشان‌دهنده بازگشت سریع سیستم به تعادل است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of the Legal Reserve Rate on the Inflation Rate in the Iranian Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahyar FekrAzad 1
  • Bahram ErfaniRad 2
  • Ali Fakour 3
1 Master's degree student in Economic Sciences, Islamic Banking major, Faculty of Resistance Economics, Imam Hossein (peace be upon him) University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Resistance Economics, Imam Hossein University (peace be upon him), Tehran, Iran.
3 Researcher, Department of Economics, Faculty of Resistance Economics, Imam Hossein University (peace be upon him), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Inflation in Iran's economy is influenced by factors such as liquidity, monetary base, economic growth, money multiplier, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, and economic sanctions. The Central Bank of Iran utilizes the legal reserve rate to regulate banks' lending capacity, money creation, and liquidity management, ultimately aiming to control inflation. However, its effectiveness remains a subject of debate. This study incorporates macroeconomic variables to examine the impact of the legal reserve rate on inflation and provides a comprehensive analysis of this relationship.
This research investigates the effect of the legal reserve rate on inflation in Iran . It is an applied study employing the ARDL model to analyze short- and long-term relationships between variables. Data were collected from official sources, including the Central Bank of Iran and the Statistical Center of Iran, and analyzed using EViews 12.
Findings indicate that an increase in the legal reserve rate has a significant positive impact on inflation. In the short run, an increase in this ratio, with a coefficient of 5.736 and a probability of 0.0161, leads to higher inflation by reducing banks' lending capacity. In the long run, the coefficient remains- 8.782 with a probability of 0.0407, confirming its role as a liquidity management tool. Additionally, approximately 70% of short-term deviations from the long-term equilibrium are corrected each period, indicating a rapid adjustment process.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Legal Reserve Rate
  • Inflation Rate
  • Liquidity
  • Monetary Policy
  • ARDL
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